GER40 Evening Coil EA: 376% Profit with 10% Max Drawdown

Related: MQL5 Wizard: Trading Signals with Morning/Evening Stars and Stochastic Oscillator - another powerful expert for MetaTrader 5 traders.

GER40 Evening Coil EA This is a free, fully open EA for the German 40 index on H1.

Also recommended: Trade Signals Using Morning/Evening Stars Confirmed by CCI Indicator in MT5 - similar expert with strong performance on MetaTrader 5.

It buys in the evening session after a recent narrow-range bar, when volatility is calm and volume is normal, and closes all trades by 23:00 server time.
Key features include: Four conditions, long only, one trade at a time, and a stop loss on every trade.


Backtest Results

The following results are based on a backtest from 2026 01 01 to 2026 10 13, using a $10,000 starting balance and a fixed lot size of 5 (no compounding).

- Net profit: +$37,647 (+376.5%)
- Return per year: +78.7% (simple, not compounded)
- Max drawdown: 10.5% of equity
- MAR ratio: 2.74
- Profit factor: 2.07
- Win rate: 62.6% (291 of 465 trades)
- Total trades: 465 (approximately 97 per year)
- Average win: $250.81
- Average loss: $203.10
- Longest losing streak: 5 trades
- Recovery factor: 13.12


Robustness Testing

The EA underwent 15 robustness tests designed to identify weaknesses. It achieved a grade A in all tests, which were conducted using a dedicated research engine, not directly within MetaTrader.

- Stress tests included factors like doubled fees (PF 1.82), added slippage on entries/exits (PF 1.71), and delayed entries by one bar (PF 1.43).


Statistical Significance

The strategy's performance was evaluated for statistical significance:

- p-value: 0.000014 on the development data and 0.001 on unseen data.
- It outperformed 200 random-entry strategies (PF 1.95 vs. a random median of 1.09).
- Significance remains after the Harvey-Liu adjustment for 5,552 tested candidates (adjusted p = 0.0008).
- In 1,000 Monte Carlo resamples, the bottom 5% of results remained profitable.


Overfitting Analysis

An analysis was conducted to assess the risk of overfitting:

- Profit factor on unseen data: 2.15 (compared to 1.88 on development data).
- Four out of five walk-forward periods were profitable, with one breaking even.
- The probability of backtest overfitting is estimated at 14%.
- The look-ahead audit was clean.


Parameter Fragility

The EA's sensitivity to parameter changes was tested:

- 12 nearby parameter variations maintained a profit factor between 1.60 and 1.96.
- All 55 parameter tweaks resulted in profitable trades (median PF 1.58).
- Removing 20% of random trades, or the 10 best trades, still resulted in a clear profit.
- The 10 best trades accounted for only 29% of the total profit.


Strategy Details

A trading signal requires all four of the following conditions to be met on the bar that just closed:

1. Low Volatility Spike: The last 10 hourly returns are less than 1.6 times as volatile as the last 100 hours.
2. Normal Volume: The current bar's tick volume is not below its 50-bar average.
3. Quiet Regime: The average tick volume over the last 252 bars is below a specific threshold.
4. Recent Coil: One of the last 13 bars was an NR7 bar (the narrowest range within its preceding 7 bars).

These conditions were identified through automated research, and the source code is provided for transparency and further testing.


Trade Management

The EA enters a buy position at the open of the next bar. It uses a stop loss set at 3.5 ATR and a target profit at 4.5 ATR. All open positions are closed by 23:00 server time, or one minute before the broker closes the GER40 contract if that occurs earlier.


Trading Schedule

Trades occur Monday to Friday during the evening session, after the Frankfurt cash market closes and while Wall Street is open. The times provided are based on a common MetaTrader server time of GMT+2 (winter) and GMT+3 (summer):

- Entries: 18:00 to 21:00 Server Time
- Close: 23:00 Server Time

Note: If your broker uses a different server time, adjust the hours accordingly. The EA will print your server's GMT offset upon startup.


Setup Instructions

Attach the EA to your broker's German 40 chart (e.g., GER40, DE40, GER40.cash) on the H1 timeframe and configure your desired lot size. The validation section in the source code is solely for MQL5's automatic testing and does not affect live trading on GER40 H1.


Pros and Cons

Pros:
- Four clearly defined conditions implemented in readable code.
- Passed all 15 stress tests and demonstrated increased robustness on unseen data.
- Every trade includes a stop loss, and the EA closes all positions daily, avoiding overnight swaps.
- Fully open-source and free to use.

Cons:
- Condition 3 relies on an absolute tick-volume level specific to the broker's feed. This value is printed by the EA at startup, and users can adjust or disable the condition.
- The EA is long-only, meaning it does not trade during market downturns.
- Trades are executed during the evening session, which may involve wider spreads.
- The strategy is optimized for one specific market (GER40) and timeframe (H1).


Disclaimer

Backtest and stress test results do not guarantee future performance. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose. This EA is shared for educational and research purposes.

You may also like: Trade Signals: Morning/Evening Stars with MFI Confirmation using MQL5 Wizard - excellent alternative for expert users on MetaTrader 5.

#property copyright "RobotFX"
#property version   "1.00"
#property strict
#property description "This code is educational. Feel free to use, modify and upgrade as you wish. Visit ROBOTFX.ORG for professional trading tools"
#include <Trade/Trade.mqh>
input bool   InpAllowTrading     = true;
input double InpLots             = 0.01;
input double InpRvRatioMax       = 1.6;
input double InpVolZMin          = -0.1;
input double InpAvgVolumeMax     = 2125;

.......

• This tool is provided for educational and testing purposes only.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Use on a demo account first.
• Results may vary depending on market conditions, broker, and settings.
• We recommend thorough backtesting and forward testing before using with real funds.